Miles MitchellProfessor MaticPOSC 361030 March 2014The Ukrainian CrisisI. IntroductionThe current international crisis involving Russia and Ukraine developed in the aftermath of the 2014 revolution in Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was impeached and quickly fled the capital. An interim government was formed around Oleksandr Turchynov as interim president. Germany and the United States quickly recognized this new government, but Russia did not. In late February, pro-Russian militias began taking control of Crimea, a part of eastern Ukraine. They gradually dominated the peninsula and effectively took control of it. Soon after, Crimea held a referendum and overwhelmingly decided to join Moscow. The West and the Ukrainian interim government condemned this decision, as did the UN General Assembly. Nonetheless, Russia effectively absorbed Crimea. The initial spark of the crisis was Ukraine's move towards Europeanization. This was a major turning point in the crisis. The March 16 referendum is contested, given the absence of international observers. While the West paints Russia's soft annexation of Crimea as a violation of international law, Russians argue that Crimea wanted to break away from a country they considered hostile. The Ukrainian central government considers this to be a violation of international law. Ultimately, with the help of Russian military intervention, Crimea successfully severed ties. Intrusive actions of this kind are not necessarily new for Moscow. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. The West eventually applied enough diplomatic pressure to end that short-lived conflict. However, Russia took over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russian troops still occupy. The United States, along with the Europeans... in the middle of the paper... deploy international observers and a general de-escalation of the situation. Another controversial issue is the degree of federalization the new Ukrainian government will have. President Obama reaffirmed commitments to NATO and announced further military deployments to Eastern Europe. However, a conciliatory “off-ramp” approach may be possible when Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to explore possible diplomatic solutions. However, some skepticism surrounds this possibility as the two sides may still have irreconcilable differences on the issue (such as President Obama asking Russia to withdraw its troops from the border, something the Russians may not commit to). One of the most influential factors of the crisis could be the result of the upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections which will be held on May 25.
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