A is probably measured between zero and 100%. Kahneman and Tversky noted that for very small probabilities, people round the probability to zero. For high probabilities, people round to one. If people decide not to round the probability to zero or one, they exaggerate the difference between zero and one. For most people there are three probabilities; the event cannot happen, the event could happen or the event will happen. Prospect theory explains much of what happens in finance, but prospect theory does not explain everything. Other biases, such as overconfidence and cognitive dissonance, cloud thinking. The tendency to overconfidence produces anomalies and opportunities for manipulation. Cognitive dissonance is a judgmental bias that people tend to express because they cannot admit when they are wrong. People will hold on to old beliefs and try to find evidence to support their beliefs because they have ego involvement with them